Winter weather is coming to a trail near you

Posted by Patty Wed, 02 Jan 2008 23:25:00 GMT

This just in:

500 am PST Wed Jan 2 2008

...Rain and wind expected Thursday through Sunday across the San Francisco and Monterey Bay areas…

A major change in the weather pattern is expected to take place in the eastern Pacific starting Thursday. Strong zonal flow is expected to bring a series of Pacific storms into the region…with the potential for an extended period of significant rainfall and strong winds.

The first in a series of weather systems will bring moderate to locally heavy rainfall to the San Francisco and Monterey Bay areas Thursday afternoon and evening. A second and very powerful storm system is expected to bring heavy rain and strong gusty winds to much of northern and central California Friday into Friday night. Damaging winds gusting to as high as 60 mph are possible…especially along the coast and in the mountains. Due to the strong south to southwest low level flow with this second system…there will likely be significant orographic enhancement of rainfall across south and southwest facing mountain and foothill locations. The potential for very high rainfall rates in the mountains and hills will bring the possibility of flooding or flash flooding.

A third weather system is expected to bring another threat of rain or showers Saturday night into Sunday. At this time…it appears that this system will be colder with less moisture. Snow levels could lower to 2000 to 3000 feet…with snow possible on the Bay area hills.

Preliminary rainfall totals look to be quite impressive for the entire event from Thursday through the weekend. At this time…coastal and valley locations can expect as much as 2 to 4 inches of rain…with mountains receiving between 4 to 8 inches of rain. Local spots in the Santa Cruz Mountains and the Santa Lucia mountains could receive in excess of 10 inches of rain by the end of the weekend. Again…all these are preliminary numbers and can be expected to change as new information becomes available.

These strong Pacific storms are also expected to bring a large westerly swell into the coastal waters Friday through Sunday…bringing the potential for high surf conditions across all west facing beaches.

Please stay tuned to the latest National Weather Service forecasts and statements as this weather situation develops.

208 PM PST Wed Jan 2 2008

...High wind watch in effect from Thursday afternoon through Friday afternoon…

The National Weather Service in San Francisco has issued a high wind watch…which is in effect from Thursday afternoon through Friday afternoon.

South to southeast winds will increase Thursday afternoon to 20 to 40 mph with gusts to 55 mph…and will continue through Thursday night. The second…more powerful system will bring even stronger winds to northern and central California. Winds along the coast and valleys will increase early Friday morning to 30 to 45 mph with gusts to 60 mph possible. Winds in the hills above 1000 feet could possibly gust to hurricane force…75 mph on Friday. Winds will decrease Friday evening.

A high wind watch means there is the potential for a hazardous high wind event. Sustained winds of at least 40 mph…or gusts of 58 mph or stronger may occur. Continue to monitor the latest forecasts.